Wind: SSW 6 mph
Precipitation: 0%
Groundhog day dates back to 1887. Historically the groundhog has seen his shadow 103 times and has only forecast an early spring in 18 years. On February 2, 2018 "Punxsutawney Phil Sees Shadow, Predicts 6 More Weeks of Winter" (weather.com). The news has been delivered as:
"Up early this morning. Far from home. Are you searching for the Phil-osopher's stone? Well, even my best friends, they don't know. Is it an early spring or just more snow? My faithful followers, your hands – and my paws – are getting cold, so here is my forecast. Not lead, but solid gold: I see my royal shadow! Six more weeks of winter to go!"
To point out the obvious, NOAA says that Punxsutawney Phil has "no predictive skill." This large rodent has only been accurate 39% of the time since 1887. Comparatively, meteorologists' forecasts are accurate 80% or more.
However, there may be some truth to this years lucky prediction. Tonight a low pressure system will take over the the Great Lakes Region from Friday night into Saturday. My predictions from this potential snow storm will cause temperatures to rise to near freezing instead of surrounding 0°F. Conditions need to be a certain temperature and contain a certain pressure in order for snow to fall.
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| Figure 1. Low Pressure system moving to the Midwest (The Weather Channel). |
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| Figure 2. Snow forecast predicts 1-3" for most of Wisconsin (The Weather Channel). |
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