February 28, 2018

Temperature: 43°F
Dew Point: 32°F
Wind: NE 6 mph
Clouds: Clear

The break in the jet stream is allowing for another series of snow storms to develop in the NW. 

There is a series of low pressure systems around the county, with a high pressure systems coming from the NW and north.

Early Thursday night/morning, it can be expected to see a snow in the high pressure system and much rain to the western half of the US.

February 27, 2018

Temperature: 43°F
Dew Point: 29°F
Wind: S 1 mph
Clouds: Clear

The winds are still coming from the south in the high pressure system. The eastern half of the US is experiencing warmer temperatures. Where the northwestern corner has been receiving below average numbers and cold conditions.

Figure 1. Wind direction and temperature map (wunderground.com)

The cold temperatures in this area are coming from the dip in the jet stream, shown in figure 2.

Figure 2. jet stream (earth.nullschool.net).

The low pressure front will not move much into Wednesday. However, the warm conditions could create higher precipitation in the atmosphere where certain areas could experience rain.

Figure 3. Fronts, pressures, weather for Wednesday 2/28 (NOAA).

Wisconsinite Shorts Weather - February 26, 2017

Temperature: 44°F
Dew Point: 23°F
Wind: S 8 mph
Clouds: Clear

Temperatures were significantly high today. Much of the snow from this past weekend was melting today creating a series of puddles everywhere. Anytime temperatures reach above 40, people in Wisconsin think it's shorts weather. Winds that are coming from the south are pushing up more of the warm air. 

Figure 1. Temperature map (weather.gov).

The jet stream is moving directly west across the US with minimal troughs or irregularities in its pattern. Currently, there is not much for weather events stirring up in the US. 

Figure 2. jet stream (earth.nullschool.net)

There is a low pressure system from  the north with cold air behind it. Much the US is covered in high pressure temperatures covering most of the US behind a stationary front. 

Figure 3. Surface map (intellicast.com)

Hit the Slopes - February 25, 2018

Temperature: 28°F
Dew Point: 17°F
Wind: W 16 mph
Clouds: Clear

After yesterday's storm, there area lot of areas left with either large quantities of snow, flooding, or ice. On I-94 between Eau Claire and Minnesota, plows could not keep up with amount of snow that was coming down. In Figure 1, you can see the cloud cover over the Midwest when the storm was moving in yesterday.

Figure 1. Clouds/Visibility (National Weather Service). 

Figure 2 shows the quantities of snow in this area. Meteorologists were not lying when they said there was going to be heavy snow and hazardous travel conditions.

Figure 2. Recorded snowfall (National Weather Service). 

Today, the precipitations is mostly on the east coast. Creating clear and sunny conditions for the Midwest after the snow storm of the year. The line of green (precipitation) is also where the Low pressure front has moved to pushing storming conditions way. 

Figure 3. Precipitation in the US (NOAA).

All that is left to do after large quantities of snow like this, is to go out and enjoy it. 

Figure 4. Photo taken at Afton Alps Ski Resort.

Do You Want to Build a Snowman? - February 23, 2018

Temperature: 29°F
Dew Point: 28°F
Wind: W 12 mph
Clouds: Cloudy

Last night, a heavy blanket of snow and sleet covered the streets and cars this morning. There is still a significant amount of moisture in the air after the snow storm past, since the DP is only one degree less than the temperature outside. Most of the precipitation has moved to the eastern half of the states.

Figure 1. Precipiation map (NOAA).

Temperatures can be expected to be near freezing for the day and then drop into lower temperature tonight. The blue temperature line that is formed is in a similar pattern to the low pressure system that is moving in an odd pattern around the US (compare in Figure 3). 

Figure 2. temperature map (weather.com).

The temperature below the low pressure system are warmer than those to the NE.

Figure 3. Current Surface map (http://www.intellicast.com/).

This low pressure system is still expected to create a great deal of storms throughout the US from Saturday into Sunday. The western half of the Midwest and NE are expected to see snow and the ESE can expect rain and even some thunderstorms. These storms can be expected to start around 1 pm on Saturday in our area. 

Figure 4. Forecast Map for Sat, Feb 24 - 1:00 PM EST (wunderground.com).

This area specifically can see anywhere from 3-10 inches of snow depending on where the cycle turns around to. Regardless, have those shovels ready for tomorrow!

Figure 4. Snowfall predictions (National Weather Service).

Thunder Snow - February 22, 2018

Temperature: 18°F
Dew Point: 7°F
Wind: E 6 mph
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy
Precipitation: 35%

The jet stream is moving from the SW currently over the Midwest. This jet stream could result in some interesting weather. A blogger by the name of Kenny Blumenfeld, is calling this an "Intro Meteorology Stumper. Meaning a series of events are going to happen over the course of the next couple of days. Only certain algorithms are even able to pick up such events.

Figure 1. Jet stream (https://earth.nullschool.net).

For starters, today there will be snow coming to the Minnesota/Wisconsin area. This is due to the fact that there is an unpredictable low pressure system/stationary front moving across the country.  Eau Claire is expected to get about 2-4 inches of snow this evening.

Figure 2. 12 hour surface forecast (http://www.intellicast.com/).

The polar continental is bringing down cooler temperatures from the north. The warmer temperatures are staying to the south of the low pressure front.

Figure 3. Surface winds and temperatures (https://earth.nullschool.net).

In the map below, these are the areas that can be expected to be hit by the first wave of snow storms. Midwest receiving mostly snow, below that is looking to have some mix and ice, and moving towards the south is expected to have rain. 

Figure 4. Forecast Map of Thursday (Today) at 7:00 pm (www.wunderground.com/).

That leaves us for the weekend forecast. As stated previously, it is unpredictable to your average person. Looking back at figure 1, the circling air to the northwest could potentially turn into a cyclone bringing a mix of weather events. By Saturday night, there can expect to be anything from large quantities of rain, thick/wet/heavy snowfall, ice conditions or even the rare Thunder Snow. This storm will happen quick, therefore conditions can be unpredictable for what exactly each area will receive. 

Figure 5. Forecast Map of Saturday at 7:00 pm (www.wunderground.com/).

February 21, 2018

Temperature: 19°F
Dew Point: 4°F
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Clouds: Clear

Today, the jet stream is  moving from the up and over Wisconsin, losing the sharpness to the trough that was present earlier this week.

The Low pressure cold air front has moved all the way down to the southeastern states of the US. Taking the extreme storm conditions with it.

As you can see on the temperature map below, the cold air (blue) is right in line with the cold air front. Much of the air is coming from the north known as the continental polar, creating cooler conditions.

February 19, 2018

Temperature: 27°F
Dew Point: 21°F
Wind: NNE 14 mph
Clouds: Cloudy
Precipitation: 65%

The jet stream is still moving with it's trough to the lower western region of the US. The high power of the jet stream is pushing up from the SW. The surface winds are moving from the NNE, pulling more of the cold air.

Figure 1. Height 250, Jet stream (earth.nullschool.net).

The strong low pressure cold front is moving to the east across the US, with snow to the NW and rain to SE. In line with the front, there is expected to be dangerous ice forming in it's path. 

Figure 2. 12 hour surface map (intellicast.com).

From this storm, there is a series of events all across the US, mainly snow and rain just in the Midwest region. 

Figure 3. Purple - Winter Weather Advisory, Pink - Winter Storm Warning, Green - Flood Watch, Brown - Wind Advisory, Light Blue- Wind Chill Advisory (weather.gov).

Ice Ice Baby - February 18,2018

Temperature: 41°F
Dew Point: 22°F
Wind: S 17 mph
Clouds: Clear

Temperatures in the Eau Claire area are still in the 40s creating nice warm temperatures. The wind is coming from the south at 17 mph. This is what is causing the push to higher temperatures.

However, the cold dry air from the north is coming into contact with the warm moisture air from the south. This is conjuring up a storm that will involve an excessive amount of rain or snow depending on which area you are in. There is also to be expected much ice where the two zones combine. The snow/rain storm will be occurring during Monday into Sunday.

These intense changes and storms are happening due to the shift in the jet stream. The trough that developed towards the west of the US is surging large quantities of energy. This is creating a strong low pressure system that will bring the snow tomorrow. 

February 16, 2018

Temperature: 12°F
Dew Point: -1°F
Wind: S 7 mph
Clouds: Clear

Today there was a Low pressure cold front moving from the north across the US (Figure 1). The cool air pushed for cooler temperatures for the day.

The jet stream is moving from the  mainly from the SW pushing to the NE. Based on the jet stream and the current wind conditions coming from the South, it can be expected to have higher temperature tomorrow.

Bye bye warm weather! - February 15, 2018

Temperature: 40°F
Dew Point: 28°F
Wind: NW 9 mph
Clouds: Clear
Precipitation: 15%

Yesterday, started the brief streak of warm temperatures. Yesterday the wind was coming from the south, pushing the warm 40° temperatures. Currently, the wind is moving from the NW. This will bring back some of the cooler temperatures. Figure 1 shows that there is another Low pressure system/cold front moving in from the north.

Figure 1. National Outlook Current Surface Analysis (intellicast.com).

The trough in the jet stream (western US) is capturing the cooler air. As the flow of the jet stream and the cold front move toward the Midwest, temperatures should be expected to drop later tonight and into tomorrow.

Figure 2. jet stream (https://earth.nullschool.net/).

'Roll Your Windows Down and Cruise' Kind of Day - February 14, 2018

Temperature: 40°F

Dew Point: 30°F

Wind: S 9 mph

Clouds: Clear

It's 40° in Wisconsin. That means shorts, windows down, and ditching the winter coats. But mother nature is only teasing us Wisconsinites. This is all happening because the polar vortex has split. "In short, there are now two smaller vortices: one over western Canada and another over Europe. Across the Arctic, where the polar vortex typically stays locked, the stratosphere has warmed. This typically kicks into motion a polar vortex disruption like we are seeing" (weather.com). 

Figure 1. Polar vortex spit (weather.com).

What does this mean for the US? Warmer temperatures could be making their way in. That could be above normal temperatures for Wisconsin. 

Figure 2. Heat map.

However, based on the concept that Low (L) pressure areas want to intrude on High (H) pressure areas, the warm weather will be brief. In a few days times, there should be a L pressure front moving to the south bringing, once again, the continental polar temperatures. 

February 13, 2018

Temperature: 22°F
Dew Point: 6°F
Wind: S 13 mph
Clouds: Cloudy

The current conditions for Eau Claire, WI include a Dew Point (DP) Depression of 16°. Typically, the higher the DP depression the more dry the air is. Figure 1 shows some of the wind patterns that are occuring in the area.

Figure 1. weather underground wind map.

There is a low pressure stationary front moving toward the Midwest.

Figure 2. Fronts (weather underground).

The jet stream is continuing to shift to the northeast. Based on this map and the others, it can be predicted that warmer conditions will be pushing into the area from the south. Creating a much more relaxing climate in the Eau Claire area. 

February 11, 2018

Temperature: 12°F
Dew Point: -2°F
Wind: SW 10 mph
Clouds: Sunny and Clear

The Midwest is currently unaffected by much storm wise. It still remains cold in this area. Currently, the jet stream is pushing NE moving over the Northeast Coast.

Figure 1. earth.nullschool.net

Areas that are most impacted by the storms southeastern part of the States. They are currently under a flood watch after the weekends rain storms pushing through the area. Northeast is experiencing ice from the snowy part of the winter storm. Areas including Michigan, Northern Maine, and parts of Texas and Nevada are under a winter weather advisory.

Figure 2. weather.gov

I predict that as soon there is more clouds in the sky and the jet stream continues to pull weather from the south, that soon there should be some warmer temperatures for the Midwest. 

2,000 Miles of Winter Storm Mateo - February 8, 2018

Temperature: 11°F
Dew Point: 4°F
Wind: W 7 mph
Clouds: Sunny and Clear

Currently, the Jet Stream is pushing from the NE and down over the Midwest. This results in the Midwest being within the trough of the Jet Stream. This event can be considered the Alberta Clipper. An Alberta Clipper occurs when a system of cold weather comes down through the jet stream bringing heavy snow. Appropriately named because the winter weather is coming from Alberta, Canada.

Figure 1. The dip in the jet stream over Michigan area, is where the trough is located on the jet stream. (earth.nullschool.net)

The narrow path of this snow storm is expected to reach from Montana through Maine through Friday night. The snowfall will range from 4-8 inches throughout the path of Winter Storm Mateo.

Figure 2. weather.gov

Don't put those shovels away just yet folks! - February 7, 2018

Temperature: 6°F

Wind: W 2 mph

Clouds: Mostly Cloudy

As the storm moved across the Midwest and Plains overnight, a light dust of snow covered the cars this morning. To my knowledge, it looked to be about an inch of snow that I had to wipe off my car before work. 

Figure 1. Weather.com

Right now the largest part of the snow storm is hitting the Northwest. Winter Storm Liam is bringing a mix of snow, sleet, ice, and rain throughout the day. Many areas already iced are causing crashes and dangerous travel conditions. 

But the snow is not over. More snow is expected to venture to the Midwest this weekend. The energy within the southern arcing dip of the jet stream will bring snow from Montana to Maine. But another system will travel from the Rockies to the Midwest. 

Figure 2. Weather.com

 

Muy Frio... - February 6, 2018

Prediction Confirmed:
Based on weather patterns yesterday, I predicted that conditions will most likely remain the same. Today is recorded as:

Temperature: 6°F
Wind: SE 3 mph
Clouds: Sunny and Clear

Fortunately, this area is not receiving winter storm, unlike the east coast.The north pacific current is pushing jet stream directly over the Northeastern states moving NE. Winter Storm Liam is predicted to spread a lot of snow and ice from the Midwest to the Northeast through Wednesday night.

Figure 1. Counties in purple are under a winter weather advisory, dark blue is a winter storm watch, and pink areas have a winter storm warning. (http://www.weather.gov)

Tuesday night the Plains and the Midwest should expect to receive around 3 inches or less of snow.

Figure 2. (weather.com)

As the snow storm continues to the east, some areas can expect 6 or more inches of snowfall, and some areas might be getting a food. This includes the New York-New England areas. Areas on the southern edge of the storm could have a potential ice problem from developing rain that could occur with the storm.

Figure 3. (weather.com)