April 30, 2018

Temperature: 79°F
Dew Point: 45°F
Wind: SSE 22 mph
Clouds: Altostratus
Precipitation: 20%

Temperatures are high today with winds coming from the south. Today's high was 81°F and tonight temperature will stay on the warmer side with a low of 59°F. Where the line is carved in the wind patterns of Figure 1, shows the cold front dividing the US by cold vs warm temperatures.

Figure 1. Surface winds (earth.nullschool.net).

A warm front is crashing with the cold front, creating a series of thunderstorms over the Dakotas. If the low pressure system continues to move west, Wisconsin should see these strong thunderstorms tomorrow.

Figure 2. Current surface (intellicast.com). 

A stretch of high precipitation is extending from the Dakotas to Texas. South of the cold front, there is a moisture change indicated by the dryline on the surface map (Figure 2).

Figure 3. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

April 27, 2018

Temperature: 53°F
Dew Point: 35°F
Wind: NE 17 mph
Clouds: Cumulus Fractostratus
Precipitation: 20%

Today is a great day to watch the clouds. Figure 1 shows that in the Eau Claire area there is a cyclone moving over this area. Watch for vertical development in the cumulus clouds. If they continue to grow into Cumulonimbus clouds and the winds shift to strong SW winds, strong storms could be possible.

Figure 1. Surface winds (earth.nullschool.net).

However, because the wind is moving NE there is some precipitation likely. Right now there about 20% precipitation in the atmosphere. There is a drier streak across Eau Claire. And due to the fact that there is no rain forecast on the radar SW of Eau Claire, I do not think there is room for development for it to actually rain tonight.

Figure 2. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

The cold front is going to continue to move SE tonight with a series of Lows. This means that temperature will get down to the 30°F overnight. And for all of you who thought it would be time to finally sit out on your patio or have the first fire of the year, it will be 47°F by the time sun sets (8:06 p.m.). Make sure you bring a sweatshirt!

Figure 3. Surface Forecast for 8:00 PM EDT (intellicast.com).

April 26, 2018

Temperature: 65°F
Dew Point: 35°F
Wind: NNW 14 mph
Clouds: Cumulus
Precipitation: 20%

Temperatures remained relatively high today with stronger winds than usual. The high pressure system kept from any exciting weather from happening. Now the winds are coming from the NNW at 14 mph. That can lead to cooler temperatures starting tonight into tomorrow.

Figure 1. 12-Hour Surface Forecast (intellicast.com).

Most of the precipitation is showing between the two cold fronts to the east. The dry air in the SE is due to the winds coming from the north and circling back up in the cyclone pattern.

Figure 2. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

There is still a large gap when the next low pressure system will reach the Midwest. Therefore, if the NW winds continue, temperatures should be lower than they have the last few days. This pattern should stay for tomorrow and Saturday. No spring storms yet to worry about.

April 25, 2018

Temperature: 42°F
Dew Point: 28°F
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Clouds: Clear

The high pressure system over the Midwest is keeping the skies clear today with barely any clouds and temperatures in the 60s. The high for today is 60°F and the low for tonight is 37°F. Definitely weather to leave your windows open at night for a great sleep.

Figure 1. Surface Forecast (intellicast.com).

The Nor'easter (Maritime Polar air mass) is bringing a lot of rain into the Northeast today. The east coast also has sharp changes in moisture where the occluded front stands (this is indicated by the dry lines). Additionally, the south has a lot of precipitation forming from the Maritime Tropical (Gulf) air masses. This air mass is most likely causing humid conditions as well.

Figure 2. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

The continually shifting jet stream has moved us from large quantities of snow to above average temperatures for this area. The approaching 70 temperatures is unusually for April and will be high by the time it's May. If the trough continues to build in the jet stream to the east, the continental polar masses will bring cold air to the west and the Maritime Tropical will shift warm and humid conditions for the east half of the US. This will bring severe weather to those areas that are on the border of the Cold/Warm front. That means that severe weather could also strike in the upper Midwest as well.

Figure 3. Severe weather outbreak, tornado risk poised to strike central US next week (accuweather.com).

April 24, 2018

Temperature: 46°F
Dew Point: 36°F
Wind: Calm
Clouds: Cirrus

The big debate at this time of year (all April winter storms considering) is when can we officially turn off the heat and open the windows. Having 3 additional people living in your house, this can be an endless battle. These people who are from Wisconsin fear the cold. Like days like today where we will have a high of 63°F for the day and a low of 32°F at night, the near freezing temperatures make some people hesitant to open the windows. I would be for making this stuffy house feel like spring with the windows open. So, when will there be a low that is high enough at night to keep the heat off?

Figure 1. US Prevalent Weather For 11:00 AM EDT April 24, 2018 (wunderground.com).

Today, two low pressure systems have divided rain to the west and east of the Midwest/Midsouth. The rain should never reach Eau Claire if the patterns continue southwest.

Figure 2. Surface Forecast (intellicast.com).

The next few days it seems that there will be another high pressure system driving the temperatures back up. But not to last. A series of weather stations are predicting that there will be rain on Thursday (maybe due to the crazy patterns in the jet stream). But over the ocean by seattle, there is another low pressure system followed by a cold front. This next wave could be bringing the rain on Thursday.

Figure 3. United States Low Temperatures - Sunday, Apr 29 (accuweather.com).

Since, the temperatures are beginning to stretch to the 70°F marks, the jump in temperatures might last. My prediction is that by Sunday the lows will raise to high 40s/ low 50s and I will finally be able to tell my roommates to open the damn windows!

April 23, 2018

Temperature: 66°F
Dew Point: 27°F
Wind: S 1 mph
Clouds: Clear

Winds are still coming from the south (not very fast wind) and the sky is clear as ever on this warm day. The jet stream remains over Canada causing the influence of higher temperatures as well. There will be a high of 68°F and a low of 39°F tonight.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

There is a low pressure system to the west (following a cold front). When this reaches Wisconsin it will cause a slight temperatures drop to the 50s and could create some possibility for rain.

Figure 2. Current surface (intellicast.com). 

April 21, 2018

Kaukauna, WI
Temperature: 56°F
Dew Point: 27°F
Wind: SE 6 mph
Clouds: Cirrus

The jet stream is predominately hovering Canada, today. Winds are coming from the SE at 6 mph. The marine tropical air mass is circling below the jet stream bringing up the warmer temperatures with the gulf winds.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

The Cirrus clouds are indicating that the conditions will be fare and skies will be clear. Spring weather is upon up now that the temperatures have consistently stayed at above freezing and warmer conditions.

Figure 2. US Temperature For 1:00 PM EDT April 22, 2018 (wunderground.com).

A high pressure system is present over the Midwest. To the south, where there is a series of rain, a string of fronts are changing in type from stationary, to warm, to cold fronts.

Figure 3. current surface (intellicast.com). 

April 20, 2018

Green Bay, WI
Temperature: 42°F
Dew Point: 23°F
Wind: SSW 2 mph
Clouds: Clear
Precipitation: 10%

Slight southwest winds are shifting to warmer temperatures for Wisconsin. After shifting locations for a conference, temperatures in Green Bay will consist of a high of  55°F for the day with clear skies. The lack of cloud cover will cause the temperatures to drop tonight to a low of 28°F.

Figure 1. current surface (intellicast.com). 

The very low trough in the jet stream is hovering areas that are experincing alot of precipitation (snow and rain) in places like Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah. This low pressure system is following an occluded and warm front, creating the system of storms. North of the occluded front, there is a series of drylines. This indicates that there is a sharp moisture difference.

Figure 2. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

It is unlikely that the precipitation over the Rockies right now will come toward the Midwest. With the continuation of southern winds and clear skies will continue the stretch of warm temperatures.

April 19, 2018

Temperature: 34°F
Dew Point: 19°F
Wind: NW  6 mph
Clouds: Cirrus

We should have some good weather for once in the City of Eau Claire. The Cirrus clouds are hanging high and with winds coming from the NW that means smooth sailing for the day (not literally sailing). Cirrus clouds also suggest a warm front. Figure 1 shows this front followed by a low pressure system. This means for today we can expect a high of 50°F and a low of 22°F when night rolls around again.

Figure 1. Current surface (intellicast.com).

The jet stream is shifting to the north again, also influencing this change in temperatures. However, the trough to the west and east leave those areas stuck in some weather events.

Figure 2. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

West of the Rockies, there is a snow and some rain. This will most likely not move to far past the Rockies. And the Northeast is accumulating precipiation to have a mix of snow and rain.

Figure 3. US Prevalent Weather For 11:00 AM EDT April 19, 2018 (wunderground.com).

If the sky remains practically clear as it is now. The sun and warm temperatures will most likely start to melt the snow. Without the cloud cover though, the heat cannot stay trapped in the atmosphere, so expect nights to remain cooler/below freezing.

April 18, 2018

Temperature: 31°F
Dew Point: 24°F
Wind: NE  6 mph
Clouds: Nimbostratus
Precipitation: 30%

The Polar Vortex has shifted over the NE and an irregular wavy pattern has been created for the jet stream over the entire US. The Jet stream is starting to move below Wisconsin for today, which is why we could only be seeing a high of 38°F today.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

However, after this cold front passes over the Midwest and the high pressure system moves in, there could be an upswing in temperatures for the weekends reaching high 40s to low 50s. In the meantime, there is another patch of snow accumulated in currently in southern Minnesota and Iowa. For the Eau Claire area we may only see about <1" of that snow throughout the day.

Figure 2. Surface forecast for 2:00 PM EDT April 18, 2018 (intellicast.com).

Areas of the highest precipiation are over the Dakotas and southern Minnesota. The heaviest snow will be in the middle of the day with winds blowing N-NW at 10-25 mph and will effect areas along I-90 the most.

Figure 3. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

April 17, 2018

Temperature: 28°F
Dew Point: 18°F
Wind: N 8 mph
Clouds: Stratus

The polar vortex is still standing over the Great Lakes, creating a dip in the jet stream.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

Continueing to assess, the forecast for the potential for more snow for Wednesday. The low pressure system will bring in another wave of snow. This snow will be followed by a high pressure system, that should most likely allow for some real spring weather (higher temperatures) to start.

Figure 2. Surface forecast for 2:00 AM EDT April 18, 2018 (intellicast.com).

The snow should begin in southwest MN after midnight and by about 7 a.m. on Wednesday snow should hit this area. The heaviest snow will be from morning into the afternoon, with winds NNW from 10-20 mph.

Figure 3. US Prevalent Weather For 8:00 AM EDT April 18, 2018 (wunderground.com).

Compared to recent events, Eau Claire could barely get an inch, other places could see 3", and there is a slight chance for Albert Lea to get over 6".

Figure 4. Expected snowfall (National Weather Service - Twin Cities). 

Hopefully, after this mess temperatures will rise and the snow will stop.

April 16, 2018

Temperature: 28°F
Dew Point: 17°F
Wind: NW 7 mph
Clouds: Stratus
Precipitation: 10%

For certain area, this weekends snow storm was declared historic, breaking records across the Midwest. Specifically, for Wisconsin areas like Green Bay saw two-feet of snow! I only had to shovel about 10" of it. 

Figure 1. Historic Winter Snowstorm Totals (National Weather Service - Green Bay).

 And it you consider that snow fun, just wait, there's more. Another low pressure system is developing to the west and bringing in another wave of snow before it's time to call it spring. By about Wednesday, we should see another series of precipitation sweeping through Wisconsin.

Figure 2. Current surface (intellicast.com).

The rest of this horrible snow storm is stuck in Michigan and headed towards the NE where it is appearing to carry more rain. It even can be seen in the jet stream where the polar vortex is trapping the snow storm as well. 

Figure 3. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

But after taking one last took, you can see that the atmosphere does not hold the quanity of moisture in the air as it did this past weekend. The areas of precipitation over the Rockies and the NW is what we could be seeing as snow this coming Wednesday. 

Figure 4. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

April 14, 2018

Temperature: 31°F
Dew Point: 17°F
Wind: NE 21 mph
Clouds: Nimbostratus
Precipitation: 100%

The pocket in the jet stream is continuing to strengthen what is now going to be the second wave of this nasty winter storm. With winds moving from the NE continue at higher gusts. Currently, there is a break in the winder storm. This afternoon/evening Eau Claire, WI should be getting the second wave. Parts of Southwestern MN are already closing roads from the hazardous conditions that started last night.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

The second section of winter storm is stuck between a stationary front (being followed by a high pressure system) and the cold front of the low pressure area. The wind direction is creating this circular pattern pushing the precipitation south and cycles back up to the north.

Figure 2. Current surface (intellicast.com).

The long section of precipitation extending from Mississippi to Michigan is carrying large quantities of rain/thunderstroms. And most of the high precipiation in Minnesota/Wisconsin is where you are going to be seeing the strongest parts of the winter storm. NWS says that Eau Claire is expected to get >1" of precipitation and about 9-15" of snow after today.

Figure 3. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

April 13, 2018

Temperature: 37°F
Dew Point: 32°F
Wind: NE 14 mph
Clouds: Nimbostratus
Precipitation: 70%

Today has already stirred up a diverse precipitation events falling from the sky. Anything from rain, freezing rain, to sleet, and maybe even some hail. The dip in the jet stream, as seen in Figure 1, is currently where this heavy and unpredictable storm is beginning to circulate.

Figure 1. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

The fact that the winds are moving from the NE for the Midwest is bad news in terms of weather conditions. The winds from the south are colliding with this the low pressure system and developing even more precipitation for this area.

Figure 2. Surface winds (earth.nullschool.net).

This stationary front has a similar dip as the jet stream and creates a boundary to where the wind direction changes as well. This strong low pressure system is carrying one of the largest storms of the "winter."

Figure 3. Current surface (intellicast.com).

A line of very precipitated areas are moving from the Midwest to MidSouth. The Midwest is expected to have cooler temperatures entering the atmosphere. Therefore, this series of rain will soon turn into piles of snow. Meanwhile, in the Midsouth, there is warnings for Tornadoes brewing in the typical tornado season.

Figure 4. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

In term of what to expect, that is still not entirely certain. There are predictions that Eau Claire, WI could get about a foot of snow. But do not be surprised if there is more. The heaviest parts of the storm will begin late tonight and continue to Saturday night. Hopefully, by Sunday this storm will begin to taper off. 

Figure 5. snowfall forecast (NWS-Twin Cities).

April 12, 2018

Temperature: 45°F
Dew Point: 37°F
Wind: NW 5 mph
Clouds: Stratus
Precipitation: 0%

All the talk is the news is the weekends worst storm of the winter (even though it's spring). Be aware of the low pressure system that is sweeping across the US with the cold front. The cold temperatures are mixing with the warm air as precipitation is building up.

Figure 1. current surface (intellicast.com).

The precipitation is very high in sections of the US. Each of the high areas of precipitation are going to crash together and continue to grow in precipitation. This slow moving storm will begin tonight and continue to Sunday morning. 

Figure 2. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

At about 10 pm tonight, the rain is going to start in Eau Claire, WI. This rain will continue into Friday. As temperatures begin to cool, it will turn into a mix of freezing rain and sleet. This will then turn to snow as it becomes Saturday. 

Figure 3. US Prevalent Weather For 11:00 PM EDT April 12, 2018 (wunderground.com)

With the large quantities precipitation continuing, there could be large quantities of snow for this area. Based on the pace of the storm, it is unsure of what the conditions are going to be exactly in terms of the quantity of snow and what areas are going to get it the worst. 

April 11, 2018

Temperature: 46°F
Dew Point: 30°F
Wind: ENE 8 mph
Precipitation: 80%

The polar vortex has moved north, shifting the temperatures for just a few days. After a day with warmer temperatures than we have had lately, a wave of storms are about to hit for the Midwest. April showers bring more snow ahead. While temperatures still remain in the 40s to 50s, the first spat of rain will come tonight. The fact that the winds are coming the NE cause typically show that a storm will be coming.

Figure 1. Current surface winds (earth.nullschool.net).

The forecast for the next 12 hours show a two cold fronts and a low pressure system moving over the midwest. This is what is going to be carrying the first wave of high precipitation. The occluded front over Seattle contains a stronger low pressure system which will be bringing the next wave of terrible snow for the month of April. This will not each the Midwest until about Friday.

Figure 2. 12-Hour Surface Forecast (intellicast.com).

Currently, areas of high precipitation are resting over the Midwest and to the west at very high amounts.

Figure 3. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

April 10, 2018

Temperature: 32°F
Dew Point: 22°F
Wind: W 5 mph
Precipitation: 60%

Nothing was predicted in the forecast for the day. And if you look at any general weather station, it is a shock as well that April Snow Showers are falling on this Tuesday morning. Typically, when a high pressure system moves in, it doesn't spring precipitation (at least in what I've noticed after writing past blogs). However, in front of the stationary front there is a little cloud that has recorded some sort of preciptiation in the Twin Cities/Eau Claire area.

Figure 1. current surface (intellicast.com).

Most of the moisture remains over the northwest coast by Washington and Oregon. The Midwest is by no means dry, so this could be a reason for the few flurries that we are having.

Figure 2. United States Colored Water Vapor Satellite (accuweather.com).

Unpredictable weather senarios could arise with the breaks in the jet stream, especially in the trough of the Midwest or the upward push over the Rockies.

Figure 3. Jet stream at 250 hPa (earth.nullschool.net).

Based on the high pressure system and the shifting jet stream, I forecast that temperatures will continue to rise as the week comes to a close. And if anymore precipitation in the air falls, it will be rain and not snow since temperatures will be above 32°.